78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 60%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 0%.
Biasneutral
Alignmentconsensus neutral
Market regimeRanging
Aggregated trend strengthWeak / muted
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m●neutral
1h●neutral
4h●neutral
1D●neutral
All monitored timeframes are neutral. The timeframes agree on the absence of a confirmed directional signal.
Current market assessment
BASEDUSDT remains neutral: competing signals keep the assessment balanced.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bullish structure.
Aggregate ADX-family strength is muted on the monitored board; treat breakouts as lower-conviction until higher-timeframe ADX expands — individual shorter frames may still print elevated ADX.
Momentum & oscillators
Daily ADX at 16.0 remains muted — broader trend strength is weak even if shorter timeframes show elevated ADX.
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the downside on daily.
ADX on 4h is muted — range conditions raise whipsaw risk for breakout-style entries.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current Ranging regime (MTF consensus neutral); daily RSI at 43.2.
A confirmed range break with ADX expansion would weaken the neutral stance. Volume confirmation can support that read when available, but it is not required on every market.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario (Ranging): range conditions dominate — wait for ADX expansion before regarding a break as trend; use volume only as optional confirmation when the feed backs it.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current neutral assessment?
A confirmed range break with ADX expansion would weaken the neutral stance. Volume confirmation can support that read when available, but it is not required on every market.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.