95/100
High agreement on an extended move — not a green light to chase. Read Risk first.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 80%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +12%, conflict penalty 0%.
Riskelevated downside extension
Biasbearish
Alignmentaligned
Market regimeTrending
Aggregated trend strengthStrong
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▼bearish
1h▼bearish
4h▼bearish
1D▼bearish
All monitored timeframes agree on the same directional reading.
Current market assessment
CFGUSDT: all four monitored timeframes agree on a bearish bias — evidence agreement 95/100.
Trend structure
Price holds below EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bearish structure.
Aggregate ADX-family strength is elevated on the monitored board; treat this as intensity of trend, not as a bullish or bearish direction by itself.
Momentum & oscillators
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 29.9 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Daily ADX at 18.1 remains muted — broader trend strength is weak even if shorter timeframes show elevated ADX.
Trend strength is timeframe-specific: shorter frames can show elevated ADX while daily ADX stays muted — do not collapse these into one market-wide strength label.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals lean bearish in this observation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk is elevated to the downside — 4h RSI at 28.0 (ADX 35.1) looks stretched; keep size disciplined if chasing.
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour EMA50 near 0.1186 (daily EMA50 near 0.1334; 1×ATR ≈ 0.003072 on 4h) would weaken the bearish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario (Trending, MTF aligned): aligned timeframes favor continuation of the bearish bias while HTF structure holds.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
Does an overbought or oversold RSI automatically reverse the bias?
No. On 4h, RSI at 28.0 often marks extension risk in a strong trend rather than an automatic reversal. Direction still comes from structure, not RSI alone.
What would invalidate the current bearish assessment?
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour EMA50 near 0.1186 (daily EMA50 near 0.1334; 1×ATR ≈ 0.003072 on 4h) would weaken the bearish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.