78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 83%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Score reduced from 86/100 to 78/100 by the 78 ceiling because the daily frame is still neutral while intraday frames lean directional — identical board tallies can share this ceiling even when RSI/ADX profiles differ by asset.
Biasbearish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeRanging
Trend strengthbearish
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▼bearish
1h▼bearish
4h▼bearish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
PHAROSUSDT presents a bearish bias across monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 78/100.
Score reduced from 86/100 to 78/100 by the 78 ceiling because the daily frame is still neutral while intraday frames lean directional — identical board tallies can share this ceiling even when RSI/ADX profiles differ by asset.
Trend structure
Price holds below EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bearish structure.
Trend-strength readings lean bearish; ADX-family evidence supports a developed move.
Momentum & oscillators
Primary 4H ADX at 13.6 is only moderate — the intermediate directional lean exists without fully developed trend strength.
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the downside on 1h.
ADX on 15m (44.3) indicates a developed trend — direction still comes from price/EMA, not ADX alone.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals lean bearish in this observation.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean bearish (0 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current bearish assessment?
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.