68/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 60%, coverage 100%, MTF adj -6%, conflict penalty 8%.
Biasneutral
Alignmentdivided
Market regimeRanging
Aggregated trend strengthStrong
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▼bearish
1h●neutral
4h▲bullish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
PRLUSDT: bullish readings on 15m and 4h while the daily timeframe stays neutral — broader confirmation incomplete; evidence agreement 68/100.
Trend structure
Price holds below EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bearish structure.
On the primary frame, price is above EMA50 but still below EMA200 — constructive intermediate structure with an incomplete longer-trend filter.
Aggregate ADX-family strength is elevated on the monitored board; treat this as intensity of trend, not as a bullish or bearish direction by itself.
Momentum & oscillators
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the downside on daily.
ADX on daily (37.3) indicates a developed trend — direction still comes from price/EMA, not ADX alone.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean neutral (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current Ranging regime (MTF divided); daily RSI at 38.5.
A confirmed range break with ADX expansion would weaken the neutral stance. Volume confirmation can support that read when available, but it is not required on every market.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario (Ranging): range conditions dominate — wait for ADX expansion before treating a break as trend; use volume only as optional confirmation when the feed supports it.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
Why can intraday frames lean directional while the daily signal stays neutral?
15m and 4h lean bullish (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral) while the daily frame stays neutral — broader confirmation remains incomplete until the daily joins.
What would invalidate the current neutral assessment?
A confirmed range break with ADX expansion would weaken the neutral stance. Volume confirmation can support that read when available, but it is not required on every market.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.