78/100
High agreement on an extended move — not a green light to chase. Read Risk first.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 80%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Score reduced from 84/100 to 78/100 by the 78 ceiling because the daily frame is still neutral while intraday frames lean directional — identical board tallies can share this ceiling even when RSI/ADX profiles differ by asset.
Riskelevated upside extension
Biasbullish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeTrending
Aggregated trend strengthVery strong
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▲bullish
1h▲bullish
4h▲bullish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
QQQUSDT: bullish readings on 15m, 1h and 4h while the daily timeframe stays neutral — broader confirmation incomplete; evidence agreement 78/100.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack backs a bullish structure.
On the primary frame, price is above EMA50 but still below EMA200 — constructive intermediate structure with an incomplete longer-trend filter.
Aggregate ADX-family strength is elevated on the monitored board; treat this as intensity of trend, not as a bullish or bearish direction by itself.
Momentum & oscillators
Short-term stretch is elevated (15m RSI 74.6, 1h RSI 76.5) — treat chase risk as asset-specific extension, not a generic reversal signal.
Short-term trend intensity is elevated: 15m ADX at 56.7 shows strong intensity on that frame alone — it does not by itself confirm higher-timeframe direction.
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 29.8 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals lean bullish in this observation.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean bullish (3 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk is elevated to the upside — 1h RSI at 76.5 (ADX 29.8) looks stretched; keep size disciplined if chasing.
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour EMA50 near 673.12 (daily EMA50 near 707.69; 1×ATR ≈ 7.0397 on 4h) would weaken the bullish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario (Trending, MTF partial): bullish signals dominate the 15-minute, 1-hour and/or 4-hour frames, but weak daily / higher-timeframe ADX intensity and neutral daily confirmation indicate that directional pressure has not yet developed into a strong, broadly confirmed trend.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
Why can intraday frames lean directional while the daily signal stays neutral?
15m, 1h and 4h lean bullish (3 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral) while the daily frame stays neutral — broader confirmation remains incomplete until the daily joins.
Does an overbought or oversold RSI automatically reverse the bias?
No. On 1h, RSI at 76.5 often marks extension risk in a strong trend rather than an automatic reversal. Direction still comes from structure, not RSI alone.
What would invalidate the current bullish assessment?
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour EMA50 near 673.12 (daily EMA50 near 707.69; 1×ATR ≈ 7.0397 on 4h) would weaken the bullish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI (guide) and ADX.