78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 67%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Biasbearish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeTrending
Trend strengthbearish
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m●neutral
1h▼bearish
4h▼bearish
1D▼bearish
Timeframe agreement is incomplete (0 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral).
Current market assessment
BABAUSDT shows a bearish bias across monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 78/100.
Trend structure
Price holds below EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bearish structure.
Trend-strength readings lean bearish; ADX-family evidence supports a developed move.
Momentum & oscillators
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 44.8 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Primary 4H ADX at 21.0 is only moderate — the intermediate directional lean exists without fully developed trend strength.
Daily ADX at 15.4 remains muted — broader trend strength is weak even if intraday frames look directional.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current bearish assessment?
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.