78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 67%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Biasbullish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeTrending
Trend strengthbullish
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▲bullish
1h▲bullish
4h▲bullish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
CRCLUSDT presents a bullish bias across monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 78/100.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack backs a bullish structure.
On the primary frame, price holds above both EMA50 and EMA200 — intermediate and longer trend filters agree constructively.
Trend-strength readings lean bullish; ADX-family evidence supports a developed move.
Momentum & oscillators
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 38.2 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Primary 4H ADX at 21.4 is only moderate — the intermediate directional lean exists without fully developed trend strength.
Daily ADX at 11.5 remains muted — broader trend strength is weak even if intraday frames look directional.
Volume confirmation
No clear volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean bullish (3 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current bullish assessment?
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.