78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 83%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Score reduced from 86/100 to 78/100 by the 78 ceiling because the daily frame is still neutral while intraday frames lean directional — identical board tallies can share this ceiling even when RSI/ADX profiles differ by asset.
Biasbullish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeTrending
Trend strengthbullish
Riskelevated upside extension
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▲bullish
1h▲bullish
4h▲bullish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
MSTRUSDT shows a bullish bias across monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 78/100.
Score reduced from 86/100 to 78/100 by the 78 ceiling because the daily frame is still neutral while intraday frames lean directional — identical board tallies can share this ceiling even when RSI/ADX profiles differ by asset.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bullish structure.
On the primary frame, price holds above both EMA50 and EMA200 — intermediate and longer trend filters agree constructively.
Trend-strength readings lean bullish; ADX-family evidence supports a developed move.
Momentum & oscillators
Short-term stretch is elevated (1h RSI 75.9) — treat chase risk as asset-specific extension, not a generic reversal signal.
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 44.0 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals lean bullish in this observation.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean bullish (3 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk is elevated to the upside — manage size if chasing stretched RSI.
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
Does an overbought or oversold RSI automatically reverse the bias?
No. In a strong trend, extreme RSI often marks extension risk rather than an automatic reversal. Direction still comes from structure, not RSI alone.
What would invalidate the current bullish assessment?
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.