78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 67%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Biasneutral
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeRanging
Trend strengthneutral
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m●neutral
1h▲bullish
4h▲bullish
1D●neutral
Intraday frames lean directional while the daily frame stays neutral — higher-timeframe confirmation is incomplete.
Current market assessment
KATUSDT remains neutral: competing signals keep the assessment balanced.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bullish structure.
On the primary frame, price is above EMA50 but still below EMA200 — constructive intermediate structure with an incomplete longer-trend filter.
Trend-strength readings are muted; treat breakouts as lower-conviction until ADX expands.
Momentum & oscillators
Intermediate trend strength is firm: 1h ADX at 31.2 supports a developed directional regime on that frame.
Primary 4H ADX at 19.9 is only moderate — the intermediate directional lean exists without fully developed trend strength.
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the upside on 1h.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Contradictory evidence
Contradictory evidence: intraday frames lean neutral (2 bullish / 0 bearish / 2 neutral) while the daily signal stays neutral — do not treat this as full multi-timeframe confirmation.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
A confirmed range break with rising ADX and volume would end the neutral stance.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current neutral assessment?
A confirmed range break with rising ADX and volume would end the neutral stance.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.