78/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 67%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Biasbearish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeTrending
Trend strengthbearish
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▼bearish
1h▼bearish
4h●neutral
1D▼bearish
Timeframe agreement is incomplete (0 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral).
Current market assessment
AAOIUSDT shows a bearish bias across monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 78/100.
Trend structure
Price holds below EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bearish structure.
Trend-strength readings lean bearish; ADX-family evidence supports a developed move.
Momentum & oscillators
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the downside on 1h.
ADX on 4h (28.9) indicates a developed trend — direction still comes from price/EMA, not ADX alone.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: mixed regime — prefer confirmation over anticipation until alignment improves.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current bearish assessment?
Sustained reclaim of the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bearish case.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.