69/100
Evidence-agreement score (0–100), not a probability of profitable trading.
How this score is built
Score = (0.55×family agreement + 0.30×coverage + 0.15) × (1 + MTF adjustment) × (1 − conflict penalty). Caps: 78 when daily is neutral vs directional intraday; 88 when MTF is not fully aligned; hard range 5–95. Not a win probability.
Family agreement 50%, coverage 100%, MTF adj +0%, conflict penalty 5%.
Biasbullish
Alignmentpartial
Market regimeRanging
Trend strengthneutral
Riskcontained
Multi-timeframe alignment
15m▲bullish
1h▲bullish
4h●neutral
1D▲bullish
Timeframe agreement is incomplete (3 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral).
Current market assessment
MSFTUSDT presents a bullish bias over monitored timeframes; evidence agreement 69/100.
Trend structure
Price holds above EMA50 on key frames; the short EMA stack supports a bullish structure.
On the primary frame, price holds above both EMA50 and EMA200 — intermediate and longer trend filters agree constructively.
Trend-strength readings are muted; treat breakouts as lower-conviction until ADX expands.
Momentum & oscillators
Momentum oscillators lean supportive of the upside on 1h.
ADX on daily (32.1) indicates a developed trend — direction still comes from price/EMA, not ADX alone.
Volume confirmation
No decisive volume-spike confirmation is present in this observation.
Volatility context
Volatility-location signals are balanced without a clear stretch bias.
Risk & invalidation
Extension risk looks contained relative to the current regime.
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Scenario analysis
Base scenario: range conditions dominate — prefer to wait for ADX expansion and volume before treating a break as trend.
Scenarios describe evidence-based paths — not buy/sell recommendations or price targets.
Current assessment FAQ
What would invalidate the current bullish assessment?
Sustained closes back below the 4-hour and daily EMA50 would weaken the bullish case.
Why can two markets share the same timeframe tally but different research?
Board tallies count directional signals only. RSI stretch, ADX strength, EMA200 context and daily contradictions are asset-specific and change the interpretation even when both print the same board tally.
Definitions: RSI and ADX.